Plain explanation of NOAA space-weather data and the chance of seeing northern lights.
Kp runs from 0 to 9. From about Kp 5, NOAA calls it a geomagnetic storm.

Observer location

Start typing a city name. Selecting a city fills latitude and longitude automatically.
Observer location: Amsterdam, Netherlands — 52.37° N, 4.9° E
Estimated magnetic latitude: 53.4°
Approx. Kp needed at this location: 5.0
This local estimate is simplified. It uses your latitude and longitude to estimate magnetic latitude, then compares that with the expected Kp.

2026-06-22 — Low

Highest expected Kp: 1.67

Estimated chance for selected observer: For your selected location this is probably too weak, unless you are much farther north or conditions are exceptional.

Time Kp NOAA scale
18:00 UTC 0.67 -
21:00 UTC 1.67 -

2026-06-23 — Low

Highest expected Kp: 2.00

Estimated chance for selected observer: For your selected location this is probably too weak, unless you are much farther north or conditions are exceptional.

Time Kp NOAA scale
00:00 UTC 1.67 -
03:00 UTC 2.00 -
06:00 UTC 1.67 -
09:00 UTC 1.33 -
12:00 UTC 1.33 -
15:00 UTC 0.67 -
18:00 UTC 1.00 -
21:00 UTC 1.67 -

2026-06-24 — Low

Highest expected Kp: 3.67

Estimated chance for selected observer: For your selected location this is probably too weak, unless you are much farther north or conditions are exceptional.

Time Kp NOAA scale
00:00 UTC 1.67 -
03:00 UTC 2.33 -
06:00 UTC 1.67 -
09:00 UTC 1.67 -
12:00 UTC 2.67 -
15:00 UTC 2.67 -
18:00 UTC 3.67 -
21:00 UTC 3.67 -

2026-06-25 — Low

Highest expected Kp: 3.67

Estimated chance for selected observer: For your selected location this is probably too weak, unless you are much farther north or conditions are exceptional.

Time Kp NOAA scale
00:00 UTC 3.67 -

How to read this

Kp 0–2: quiet, low chance unless you are very far north.
Kp 3–4: possible in northern regions.
Kp 5: minor storm, decent aurora chance at higher middle latitudes.
Kp 6: good chance farther south than normal.
Kp 7–9: strong storm, aurora can reach unusually far south.

Latitude is most important, but longitude also matters because aurora follows Earth’s magnetic pole, not the geographic pole. Also check darkness, cloud cover, moonlight and a clear view to the north.